Monday, January 02, 2006

First Quarter Storms

I was just re-reading pete Lacaba's "Days of Disquiet, Nights of Rage" when I was reminded by a remark given by a friend of mine. He said that, President Arroyo is vulnerable right after the new year because historically, the revolutions (civil disturbances) in the Philippines happen almost immediately after the new year.

The First Quarter Storm (FQS), the subject of Pete Lacaba's book began in January, the first Edsa Revolution happened in February, the second Edsa was in January. He said it must have something to do with the people being rested because of the Christmas break so they have more energy for revoultions.

I am not sure if this assertion is true, coincidences do happen, the First Quarter Storm was sparked by President Marcos' state of the country speech at the Senate. The First Edsa came almost immediately after a questionable election and Edsa Dos was sparked by a perceived questionable decision in the impeachment trial of former President Estrada.

So aside from there being a "revolutionary situation", there were immediate causes that started the revolutions. The question we could answer is do we have a revolutionary situation today.

I would say yes, but not as much as during the first and second Edsa revolutions. But President Arroyo should be careful about the suspended debate on the constitutional amendments . The No Election (No-El) issue can comeback and bite her in the a**. The First Quarter Storm was after all partly because of the proposed Constitutional changes so the term limit for then President Marcos can be scrapped.

And Happy New Year to All!!! :)

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